Will "age escape velocity" become a talking point in popular media within the end of 2030?
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This will resolve as Yes if the age escape velocity is a headline at 5 or more popular news networks before the year 2030 ends.
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On one hand, longevity escape velocity is silly. There may be moments in time where longevity increases faster than aging, but to think it'll do so for extended periods requires a special kind of optimism.
On the other hand, the media loves talking silly. All it takes is one mention by Elon Musk to get the media falling all over themselves to "can you believe?!?" explain the idea.
bought Ṁ30 YES4mo
It might if a significant number of people in society are having frequent conversations with AI, and those AIs are telling people that it's something that may be very relevant to them.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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