Who could do it by the end of 2035: the record is 122 years 164 days, so the breaker must have been born before roughly July 1913 and still be alive. Among validated living supercentenarians the only person old enough to get there before the deadline with any real probability is Ethel Caterham (born 21 August 1909), who would pass Calment around 1 February 2032 at 122 and a half; from 117 that needs about five more years at a hazard the supercentenarian data put near 50% a year after 105 (Barbi et al., Science 2018), so roughly 0.5 to the fifth, about 3%. Everyone else old enough is 113 or more and has to survive nine or ten further halvings, a fraction of a percent each, and there are only a dozen or so of them on the validated list, so the whole field adds up to a few percent. 51% here is a bet on something that is not in the mortality data, and the data are unusually good at these ages because every claimant is checked document by document.

List of currently known candidates: https://gerontology.fandom.com/wiki/Oldest_living_people

The cutoff date is 1913-07-20.

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