
Will the radical right AfD get more votes than the centre-right CDU/CSU in Germany's next federal election?
21
230Ṁ2418in 8 hours
1.5%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Over the last month the far-right AfD has risen sharply in the polls.
https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/germany/
Is this a permanent change in Germany's political landscape?
Update 2025-07-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria:
Comparison based on combined CDU/CSU vote totals rather than CDU alone.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
Sort by:
Related questions
Related questions
Will the radical right AfD get more votes than the social democrats in Germany's next federal election?
95% chance
Will the AfD receive >= 20% of votes in the 2025 German federal election?
96% chance
Will the FDP reach 5+ percent in the upcoming German Election?
6% chance
Will 'Alternative für Deutschland' win more than 25% of the vote in the next German Federal Election (23rd of February)
11% chance
Will the far-right german party, Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), get the most seats in german parliament (2025)?
3% chance
What will be the results of the next German federal election?
Will the radical right AfD get more votes than the Greens in Germany's next federal election?
99% chance
Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections?
Will the CDU end up below 30% of the vote in the German Federal Elections (February 23rd)
92% chance
Will the AfD be the party with the most votes in eastern Germany in the next federal election?
92% chance