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MANIFOLD
Any viable coalition without AfD/BSW/Left? (German federal election)
9
Ṁ1kṀ511
2029
66%
chance

Will the mainstream parties still have a majority after the next German Bundestag election?

Resolves after the next German federal election (scheduled for no later than March 2029, unless early elections are called).

Definition of "mainstream" Parties:

Included as "mainstream": CDU/CSU, FDP, SPD, Greens

Not included as "mainstream": AfD, BSW, Die Linke (Left Party)
Other parties will be classified based on their policy positions relative to this spectrum

"Majority" means collectively holding more than 50% of seats in the Bundestag

Market context
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