Will the broadly centrist parties still have a majority after the next German Bundestag election?
7
1kṀ305
2029
63%
chance

Will resolve after the next German federal election (scheduled for no later than March 2029, unless early elections are called).

Definition of "Broadly Centrist" Parties:

Included as "broadly centrist": CDU/CSU, FDP, SPD, Greens

Not included as "broadly centrist": AfD, BSW, Die Linke (Left Party)
New parties that emerge before the election will be classified based on their policy positions relative to this spectrum

Note: "Broadly centrist" is of course a relative term and depends on political context / time period... But the classification here generally aligns with how these parties are currently portrayed in mainstream media

"Majority" means collectively holding more than 50% of seats in the Bundestag

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules