This market tracks which markets will close during the six month period before the next nuclear attack (as defined in https://manifold.markets/AlexBokov/when-will-the-next-attack-by-a-nucl).
Users can contribute new answers that are links to other Manifold markets. Holders of 'Other' shares will automatically receive a fair fraction of any new answers added after they bought 'Other' shares. The linked market is obviously not itself eligible to be an answer. I reserve the right to resolve as N/A other edge cases that in some unforeseen way ruin the predictive usefulness of this market but it is unlikely that I will have to do so. Links to betting markets other than Manifold can be contributed but I reserve the right to resolve them as N/A if they become inconvenient for me to track. I will not bet in this market.
Resolution criteria:
This market resolves when the 'yes' resolution criteria in the linked nuclear attack market are met.
However unlike the linked market, the start of the month when the nuclear attack happens will be used as the index date. So, for example, if the underlying market resolves to 'yes' on 'Q4 2027' and the criteria were met in October 2027, then October 1st 2027 will be the index date for resolving this market.
All answers whose underlying markets closed less than or equal to six months before the index date will resolve to true. All remaining answers will resolve to false (i.e. those whose markets are still open as well as those whose markets closed before the six-month window).
It doesn't matter why an underlying market closes, nor whether it closes with 'yes', 'no', or N/A.
If a market has both sweepcash and manna versions that somehow manage to close at different times, the sweepcash closing time will take precedence because it's resolved by manifold staff
At the end of each month during which no nuclear attack happened as per above criteria, all answers linked to markets that closed more than six months prior to the start of that month will resolve to 'false'.
1,000People are also trading
@TheAllMemeingEye Basically yes and I agree that it is more complicated than I would like. The simple version is here: https://manifold.markets/AlexBokov/when-will-the-next-attack-by-a-nucl
But what if you don't have a belief about when exactly it will happen, only about events likely to precede it? Then you are for whom this market is intended. And it's deliberately open-ended in order to crowd-source predictors that might not have occurred to me
Now, if you can dig up some market that's structured in such a way that its resolution criteria almost inevitably imply a nuclear attack a few weeks later and therefore likely to straddle the first-of-the-month cutoff, then power to you, you've got yourself a 'winner'.
Please note that I tried to prevent use of markets that would not contribute predictive value like the example I linked in this post. At first glance it might seem like a sure thing because that market resolving 'yes' would automatically cause this market to resolve 'yes' for this answer. However, that is prevented by the first-of-the-month stipulation: a nuclear attack occurring anytime during, e. g. January 2039, would NOT cause that market to close <= 6 months prior to January 1st 2039. In other words, we want to reward predictions, not tautologies.
Not that there's anything wrong with the below market, and if had a prediction I would bet on it. All I'm saying is that contributing the below market as an answer to this market amounts to predicting that @PlasmaBallin will close the nuke attack 2040 market for some reason other than a nuclear attack occurring, but they will do so within the six month window before a nuclear attack actually does occur.