Eliezer Yudkowsky calls me “promising” before the end of 2026
22
162
Ṁ1k
2026
12%
chance

Note: I'm not actually trying to make this market resolve Yes, unlike some of my other personal markets.

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predicts NO

Does it have to be you as a person, or could it also refer to your work?

@IsaacKing Needs to imply that I will do good work in the future.

Would "that rationalussy is promising" be enough for a YES resolution? Or does EY have to call you promising ~holistically~

@ForrestTaylor No. Stop.

Does it have to be an expression of their true belief? Or does it count if they just say it to manipulate this market?

@IsaacKing Has to appear to me to be an expression of their true belief.

But him saying it just to manipulate the market while being clear that he doesn't mean it would be somewhat... cruel? In a way that I don't expect him to be.

Has he ever called anyone that? I've seen him say positive things about Paul Christiano, for instance, none of which are exactly "promising" though. Would any explicit positive comment about you or your work suffice?

@agentofuser Yeah I didn’t think too hard about this market. I mostly made it for fun.

Maybe I should’ve said “considers me promising”. But it seems unfair to change it now.

@AlanaXiang I hope he does, fwiw :)

Eliezer Yudkowsky calls me “promising” before the end of 2026, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition

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