Will Waymo be found at-fault in a vehicle death by the end of 2026?
9
100Ṁ240Dec 31
22%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Waymo must be at least 50% at-fault or greater as determined by the legal system for this to resolve. This includes any death directly caused by the Waymo. I will try to use official determinations of fault, but if those are not available, I will use a consensus of credible reporting to determine who was most to blame.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Tesla has more fully autonomous rides than Waymo in 2026?
32% chance
When will the first at-fault Waymo death occur?
1/1/28
Waymo reaches 2 billion miles with three or fewer at-fault fatalities?
73% chance
Where will Waymo be available in 2026?
Will Waymo give public driverless rides to/from LAX airport by the end of 2026?
45% chance
How many Waymo robotaxis deployed at the end of 2026?
Will Waymo give public driverless rides to/from SFO airport *pickup/dropoff/terminal* area by the end of 2026?
72% chance
Waymo available in European Union before 2027?
29% chance
Will Alphabet spin off Waymo by the end of 2026?
21% chance
Waymo achieves aviation-grade safety at 2 billion miles with 0 at-fault fatalities?
53% chance