It is currently widely understood that no single entity within the United States has the ability to violently defy the jurisdiction of the government without being militarily overpowered. Following the description of Max Weber, the US government currently generally succeeds in holding the exclusive right to use, threaten, or authorize physical force against residents of its territory.

This market gauges whether this state of affairs will change before 2035, such that among informed observers, the US government clearly and obviously no longer holds a monopoly on violence.

This market intends to have a high bar for what would qualify for a YES resolution. Here are some examples:

• The government has de facto ceded law enforcement, within a region larger than 25 sq. kilometers, to be fully and exclusively managed by an entity which is not accountable to the US legal system, not counting Native tribes.

• The US has lost more than 25 sq. kilometers of territory within its borders in war.

• Organized criminal entities act in open defiance of the law, in a manner that reveals an inability, even with reasonable military effort, for the US government to control its territory. This is intended as a high bar which no organization in modern US history (including the Mafia) has met.

• The US Federal Government is toppled or fractured, such that it is no longer a unified political and military entity.

• Anything else which clearly indicates that the government has lost its de facto monopoly on violence

[For the record, I really, really don't want this to happen!]