Will U.S. military forces deployed in U.S. cities shoot and kill a U.S. citizen in 2025?
9
1kṀ713
Dec 31
36%
chance

Resolves yes if a U.S. citizen is killed by gunfire from military deployed domestically. The killing may be intentional or accidental, but

Resolution criteria

  • Resolves YES if between Jan 1–Dec 31, 2025 (local time), a member of the U.S. Armed Forces (Army, Navy, Air Force, Marine Corps, Space Force, or Coast Guard) or the National Guard (in any duty status) acting in an official capacity within the legal boundaries of a U.S. city (incorporated municipality or consolidated city-county, incl. D.C. and U.S. territories) discharges a firearm or crew‑served weapon and a U.S. citizen dies as a direct result. “Armed forces” and Coast Guard status per 10 U.S.C. §101 and 14 U.S.C. §101; “city” per U.S. Census place definitions. Federal property inside those municipal boundaries counts. (law.cornell.edu)

  • Counts regardless of intent (e.g., self‑defense, accidental, or unlawful). Off‑duty actions do not count. Deaths from weapons not “shot” (e.g., vehicles, explosives without a projectile) do not count. If the lethal shot is fired in 2025 and the victim dies later from those wounds, this resolves YES upon confirmation.

  • Verification: at least one official release (DoD, National Guard Bureau, or USCG) or two independent reputable outlets (e.g., AP, Reuters, major local paper). Example source hubs for resolution: DoD Releases; National Guard Press Releases; USCG Newsroom; AP News; Reuters U.S. (defense.gov)

  • Resolves NO if no qualifying incident is confirmed by Jan 31, 2026.

Background

  • U.S. law defines the armed forces and recognizes the Coast Guard as a military service at all times. (law.cornell.edu)

  • The Posse Comitatus Act limits federal use of the military for domestic law enforcement; National Guard under state control (Title 32/State Active Duty) and the Coast Guard have different authorities. (law.cornell.edu)

  • Precedent: During the 2020 protests, Kentucky officials determined the fatal shot that killed David McAtee in Louisville came from a National Guardsman. (apnews.com)

Considerations

  • Hawaii has no incorporated municipalities; for this market, treat actions within the City & County of Honolulu (Urban Honolulu CDP area used for Census reporting) as “in a U.S. city.” (census.gov)

  • Incidents on military bases count only if the base lies within municipal boundaries (many do not). Use city boundary maps if needed alongside official reports. (census.gov)

  • Victims may include civilians or uniformed personnel; the criterion is U.S. citizenship, not civilian status. Verification may rely on official or widely reported identification.only death by gunfire will resolve yes.

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