AaronLehmann avatar
Aaron Lehmann
closes Jan 1, 2024
Will non-US stocks outperform US stocks in 2023?

Resolves to YES if the VXUS ETF outperforms the VTI ETF on a total return basis (dividends reinvested) in 2023.

VXUS tracks the FTSE Global All Cap ex US Index and VTI tracks the CRSP US Total Market Index.

The total return calculations for the ETFs will be taken from Morningstar.com ("Total Return % (NAV)"). Note that performance is measured in US dollar terms (not local currency returns for international stocks).

Standings as of March 18, 2023:

  • VTI (US) up 2.04% YTD

  • VXUS (non-US) up 1.06% YTD

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AaronLehmann avatar
Aaron Lehmannis predicting YES at 37%
MarkIngraham avatar
Mark Ingraham

Unlikely due to Chinese RE collapse.