Will low risk stocks outperform the market from now until 2026 (sharpe ratio)?
4
37
Ṁ75Ṁ90
2026
45%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
"Total return" here means using dividend adjusted closing prices from Yahoo Finance or any suitable alternative if Yahoo Finance ceases to exist at the time of resolution of this market.
The Sharpe ratios will be calculated with a zero risk free rate using the following Python code sketch:
import yfinance as yf
import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
spyusmv = yf.download('SPY,USMV', auto_adjust=True).loc['2023-02-06':'2026-01-01']
r = spyusmv.Close/spyusmv.Close.shift()
(r - 1).mean() / r.std() * np.sqrt(252)
Feb 15, 11:30pm: Will USMV total return have a higher Sharpe ratio than SPY total return from now until 2026? → Will low risk stocks outperform the market from now until 2026 (sharpe ratio)?
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