Please feel free to add whatever stocks you like.
Resolution Criteria
A stock will resolve YES if its percentage return exceeds the S&P 500's percentage return for the calendar year 2025 (Jan 1, 2025 - Dec 31, 2025)
A stock will resolve NO if its percentage return is equal to or less than the S&P 500's return
If a stock is delisted, acquired, or undergoes a major corporate restructuring, it will be evaluated based on the return up to that event
If a stock splits or reverse splits, the returns will be adjusted accordingly
Update 2024-19-12 (PST): Returns will be calculated using total return which includes both dividends and stock price appreciation. (AI summary of creator comment)
1,000π Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | αΉ820 | |
| 2 | αΉ537 | |
| 3 | αΉ523 | |
| 4 | αΉ273 | |
| 5 | αΉ258 |
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Given the confusion on this other market it may be worth clarifying what baseline price weβre using? Price at close on 31 Dec 2024 or open on 2 Jan 2025? Markets were closed on January 1.
https://manifold.markets/SeekingEternity/will-tsla-outperform-the-sp-500-ove
Yep, total returns include dividends and stock price appreciation
Good question; ive added it to the description
@elf Will you include dividends in the SP500 return? Will you assume that dividends are reinvested? (I believe both of those would be pretty standard assumptions for this kind of question.)