Will the US stock market have experienced another lost decade before 2034? | Manifold

Will the US stock market have experienced another lost decade before 2034?

18

1kṀ944

2034

18%

chance

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For the purpose of this market, a lost decade is defined as a 10-year period where the S&P500 ends at the same level it started.

Intraday extrema will be used to resolve this question, not closing or opening prices.

Note: The start date of that decade can predate market creation. For example, if the SPX dropped below 1,729.44 on Monday, September 18th, 2023 (2 days after market creation), then the question would resolve to YES, since the high-point on September 18th, 2013, was 1,729.44.

Market context

Financial crisis

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bought Ṁ50 YES

Fast tracking it

Is this USD-denominated? Because if so then the S&P500 has to fall in real value by the inverse of inflation.

@Lsusr I will use SPX, so yes USD-denominated. No inflation adjustments.

boughtṀ20YES

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