PLEASE BE ADVISED: "Tbh I was never really thinking of this market as having legit resolution criteria. Probably should have made that clear. Like I like the selection effects that come from people willing to trade away fake internet points for a chance of moving money to some organization...Henceforth ppl are considered warned"

Update: as of Oct 27 2023 these probabilities are very roughly what I endorse

[Note Oct 27 2023: these were my original takes but shouldn't be considered up to date] Relevant information prior to any voting on the poll: I currently think Rethink Priorities holds a plurality but not a majority of the probability distribution, followed by Shrimp Welfare [Edit: Project], followed by Fish Welfare Initiative. With very high uncertainty I'd estimate that the union of these three has a probability of 50%.