Will Manifold donate at least $50 to a fraudulent charity before 2030?

Question

Resolves YES if, before the start of 2030, there is evidence that Manifold for Charity has donated (according to itself) to a charity that either is fake or has committed some kind of charity fraud. The amount of money donated by Manifold must be >= $50.

Resolves NO otherwise

Manifold Markets · Answer

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 47% chance (16 traders, as of Mar 20, 2026).

People are also trading

Related questions