See the question and its resolution criteria on Metaculus: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/17772/russia-landing-on-moon-with-the-first-attempt/

This question resolves Yes if Russia successfully lands on the Moon with their first attempt. As a first attempt, we count the first mission to be launched with a lunar lander on board and the stated intention to land the lander on the moon. This will be considered the "first attempt" even if Roscosmos decides at any point not to attempt the landing.

If there is a failure during the rocket launch from Earth it will count as a failure of the mission if the spaceship or lander are destroyed.

If the launch is aborted or if there is a malfunction of the rocket during the launch attempt which does not cause the destruction of the spaceship and/or lunar lander, another launch will still count as a first attempt.

The landing must be a soft landing, meaning that the lander must touch the ground in a controlled and gradual way that does not damage its systems to the point of being inoperable. If some but not all systems are damaged during the landing but the lander is still able to perform some of its tasks with its onboard equipment then it will still qualify as a successful landing. The landing must be confirmed by credible media sources.

This question resolves No if Russia’s first attempt to land on the Moon fails.

In the unlikely case of Roscosmos or any Russian officials claiming that the landing was successful but this claim is being challenged by other countries' space agencies or by credible media sources, then the question will resolve ambiguously unless Metaculus Admins decide that the evidence provided by one side is proof which removes any reasonable doubt (something like NASA images of the crashed lander or images of the intact lander taken from orbit or from the surface of the Moon taken by the lander if their authenticity is independently confirmed).

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