See the question and its resolution criteria on Metaculus: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/17767/luna-25-launched-before-september-2-2023/
This question resolves as "Yes", if credible media report that Luna-25 has successfully reached Earth's orbit before September 2, 2023. Further success or failure of the mission (like reaching the Moon's orbit or succeeding with a soft landing) is irrelevant to this question's resolution.
If the launch is delayed again beyond this question resolution deadline or cancelled, the question resolves as "No".
If any failure during the launch prevents Luna-25 from reaching Earth's orbit, this question resolves as "No".
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"On Friday morning at a spaceport in the far eastern part of Russia, a rocket lifted Luna-25, a robotic lander of moderate size, to Earth orbit."
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/10/science/russia-moon-launch.html
Today's post on Roscosmos Telegram channel: "Baikonur continues to prepare for the launch of a new truck. Today, the head fairing was assembled at the MIK of site 254 (https://t.me/cosmotours/103), and the sealing of the propulsion system lines was checked in the assembly and test building of site 31 (https://t.me/cosmotours/103)."
2023 July 26. Roscosmos posted on their Telegram channel: "The automatic interplanetary station "Luna-25" has been filled with fuel and compressed gases. Roscosmos specialists transported Luna to the assembly and test building. Now the station, filled with fuel and compressed gases, is at the assembly location. In the near future, the engineer crew will start assembling the payload/third stage.”
On 2023 June 13th, in an interview for TASS, representatives of Lavochkin Research and Production Association ("НПО имени Лавочкина") said: "In accordance with the Terms of Reference, the probability of mission success must be at least 80%.”
Source.