See the question and its resolution criteria on Metaculus: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/17767/luna-25-launched-before-september-2-2023/

This question resolves as "Yes", if credible media report that Luna-25 has successfully reached Earth's orbit before September 2, 2023. Further success or failure of the mission (like reaching the Moon's orbit or succeeding with a soft landing) is irrelevant to this question's resolution.

If the launch is delayed again beyond this question resolution deadline or cancelled, the question resolves as "No".

If any failure during the launch prevents Luna-25 from reaching Earth's orbit, this question resolves as "No".