Will the Russian Luna-25 mission reach Earth's orbit before September 2, 2023?

830Ṁ17k

resolved Aug 11

Resolved

YES

ALL

See the question and its resolution criteria on Metaculus: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/17767/luna-25-launched-before-september-2-2023/

This question resolves as "Yes", if credible media report that Luna-25 has successfully reached Earth's orbit before September 2, 2023. Further success or failure of the mission (like reaching the Moon's orbit or succeeding with a soft landing) is irrelevant to this question's resolution.
If the launch is delayed again beyond this question resolution deadline or cancelled, the question resolves as "No".
If any failure during the launch prevents Luna-25 from reaching Earth's orbit, this question resolves as "No".

Get

1,000

to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#	Name	Total profit
1		Ṁ141
2		Ṁ127
3		Ṁ120
4		Ṁ89
5		Ṁ84

People are also trading

Will a manned mission successfully land on the moon before December 31, 2025?

2% chance

Will NASA’s Artemis 2 mission be launched successfully before January 1st, 2026?

3% chance

Will there be a crewed mission to Lunar orbit before 2028?

75% chance

Will there be a crewed mission to Lunar orbit before 2026?

2% chance

Which of these rockets will reach orbit in 2025?

Will India launch a human into Earth orbit before the end of 2025?

2% chance

Will an American visit the Chinese space station by the end of 2025?

3% chance

Will there be a crewed mission to Lunar orbit before 2027?

63% chance

Will Roscosmos's Luna 27 mission successfully land on the moon?

37% chance

When will Russia land someone on the moon?

10 Comments

37 Holders

277 Trades

Sort by:

predictedYES

Souyz and Frigate were we true and tested vehicles. Easy money.

Now, the interesting part is coming.

predictedYES

It’s pretty funny how top western media haven’ noticed this news. 😂

predictedYES

@dsh I saw about flight on DW YouTube channel

predictedYES

Yes!

"On Friday morning at a spaceport in the far eastern part of Russia, a rocket lifted Luna-25, a robotic lander of moderate size, to Earth orbit."

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/10/science/russia-moon-launch.html

To the moon!!1 🚀 🚀

Today's post on Roscosmos Telegram channel: "Baikonur continues to prepare for the launch of a new truck. Today, the head fairing was assembled at the MIK of site 254 (https://t.me/cosmotours/103), and the sealing of the propulsion system lines was checked in the assembly and test building of site 31 (https://t.me/cosmotours/103)."

Я сказал «Поехали»!

🚀 Из чего состоит космодром? В прошлых постах мы рассказывали о стартовых комплексах, откуда взлетают ракеты, но перед этим космические корабли и спутники готовят в специальных сооружениях — монтажно-испытательных корпусах (МИК). Всего на космодроме Байконур 11 МИКов в которых размещено свыше 35 технических комплексов для предстартовой подготовки! Например в МИКе площадки 254 работают с пилотируемыми «Союзами» (те, что доставляют космонавтов на МКС), а также с грузовиками «Прогресс МС». После подготовки и заправки топливом корабли перевозят в МИК площадки 31, где собирается ракета «Союз-2». В этом же корпусе готовят и космические аппараты, а также разгонные блоки, которые «развозят» спутники по орбитам. #поехалинабайконур

2023 July 26. Roscosmos posted on their Telegram channel: "The automatic interplanetary station "Luna-25" has been filled with fuel and compressed gases. Roscosmos specialists transported Luna to the assembly and test building. Now the station, filled with fuel and compressed gases, is at the assembly location. In the near future, the engineer crew will start assembling the payload/third stage.”

On 2023 June 13th, in an interview for TASS, representatives of Lavochkin Research and Production Association ("НПО имени Лавочкина") said: "In accordance with the Terms of Reference, the probability of mission success must be at least 80%.”
Source.