Skip to main content
MANIFOLD
US announces another drawdown of Strategic Petroleum Reserve before November 1st
3
Ṁ100Ṁ45
Oct 31
65%
chance

Based on official announcements of department of energy or other relevant authorities.

Context:

President Trump authorized the Department of Energy to release 172 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, beginning next week. This will take approximately 120 days to deliver based on planned discharge rates (March 11th, https://www.energy.gov/articles/united-states-release-172-million-barrels-oil-strategic-petroleum-reserve)

The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve as of Sep 4th is 285.4 million barrels, down from 415 million pre-war.

Some historical trends at https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=mcsstus1&f=m, note that this is in thousands of barrels)

Market context
Iran
Oil
Energy
Iran USA war
Strait of Hormuz
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

People are also trading

US announces another drawdown of Strategic Petroleum Reserve before October 1st
72% chance
When will the US strategic petroleum reserve start increasing again
11/2/26
US Strategic Petroleum Reserve - lowest value in 2026
US Strategic Petroleum Reserve - lowest value in 2026 (hi-res)
162
Will the Strategic Petroleum Reserve be 600M barrels of oil or more at the end of 2026?
2% chance
Will the Strategic Petroleum Reserve be 500M barrels of oil or more at the end of 2026?
3% chance
Will the Strategic Petroleum Reserve be 600M barrels of oil or more at the end of Trump's term?
20% chance
Will US strategic petroleum reserve be over 80% of the July 2020 level by December 2029?
50% chance
Will the Strategic Petroleum Reserve be 500M barrels of oil or more at the end of 2028?
25% chance
Will the Strategic Petroleum Reserve be 500M barrels of oil or more at the end of Trump's term?
28% chance