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When will the US strategic petroleum reserve start increasing again
7
Ṁ125Ṁ635
Dec 1
November 27, 2026
17%
Before November 2026
41%
Before December 2026

The strategic petroleum reserve has been decreasing since the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. It is now at 349 million barrels (compared to 415 million pre-war). When it will first see a week-on-week increase?

This market resolves based on the values officially reported by EIA - currently at https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/supply/weekly/ under "Petroleum Balance Sheet". Directly at https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/supply/weekly/pdf/table1.pdf (will update if the source changes). Market resolves based on the date on the report that first reports a weekly increase (reports are typically published with a few days delay).

Some older historical trends below: (source: https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=mcsstus1&f=m, note that this is in thousands of barrels)

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We just had a clear 0 change for the week ending Oct 9th!

May as well not happen this year, so added a market for later dates:

Next release is for week ending Oct 1st, so "Before October" resolves NO.

Last week had one of the smallest decreases recently: 1..2 million

Still decreasing, belatedly resolving "Before August" to NO

@traders Just a broad update that so far every week has seen at least 5 million reduction

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