Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if every weekly level of the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) is published on time by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) for the remainder of 2026. Otherwise, it will resolve to NO.

• Source of Truth: The primary source of truth is the EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report (WPSR), which contains the "Weekly U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in SPR". The official schedule can be monitored at the EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report Schedule.

• On-Time Definition: For a weekly release to be considered "on time" for the purposes of this market, the SPR inventory data must be published on the official EIA website on or before 5:00 PM Eastern Time on its scheduled release day.

• Schedule for the Rest of 2026:

  • Standard releases are scheduled for every Wednesday at 10:30 AM Eastern Time.

  • The two scheduled holiday-related exceptions for the remainder of 2026 are:

    • Week ending October 9, 2026: Scheduled for Thursday, October 15, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET (Columbus Day holiday delay).

    • Week ending November 6, 2026: Scheduled for Thursday, November 12, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET (Veterans Day holiday delay).

• Delays: If any weekly report during this period is published after 5:00 PM Eastern Time on its scheduled release day, or is skipped entirely, the market will resolve to NO. If the EIA officially announces a reschedule of a release date in advance (for example, due to a newly declared federal holiday), the revised date will be considered the scheduled release day.

Background

The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) is the world's largest supply of emergency crude oil, managed by the U.S. Department of Energy. The EIA surveys SPR inventory levels and publishes this data weekly as part of the Weekly Petroleum Status Report (WPSR).

While the report is a critical piece of data for global energy traders, technical issues have occasionally disrupted its publication. For example, in June 2022, system issues stemming from a power failure forced the EIA to delay the release of the WPSR by several weeks. This market allows traders to bet on the operational reliability and promptness of the EIA's weekly data reporting system through the end of 2026.

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Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if every weekly level of the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) is published on time by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) for the remainder of 2026 (from September 16, 2026, through December 31, 2026). Otherwise, it will resolve to NO.

• Source of Truth: The primary source of truth is the EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report (WPSR), which contains the "Weekly U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in SPR". The official schedule can be monitored at the EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report Schedule.

• On-Time Definition: For a weekly release to be considered "on time" for the purposes of this market, the SPR inventory data must be published on the official EIA website on or before 5:00 PM Eastern Time on its scheduled release day.

• Standard Schedule: Standard releases are scheduled for every Wednesday at 10:30 AM Eastern Time.

• Scheduled Holiday Exceptions for the Remainder of 2026:

  • Week ending October 9, 2026: Scheduled for Thursday, October 15, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET (Columbus Day holiday delay).

  • Week ending November 6, 2026: Scheduled for Thursday, November 12, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET (Veterans Day holiday delay).

• Delays & Rescheduling: If any weekly report during this period is published after 5:00 PM Eastern Time on its scheduled release day, or is skipped entirely, the market will resolve to NO. If the EIA officially announces a reschedule of a release date in advance (including any end-of-year holiday adjustments for Christmas or New Year's not currently listed), the revised schedule will be considered the official scheduled release day.

Background

The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) is the world's largest supply of emergency crude oil, managed by the U.S. Department of Energy. The EIA surveys SPR inventory levels and publishes this data weekly as part of the Weekly Petroleum Status Report (WPSR).

While the report is a critical piece of data for global energy traders, technical issues have occasionally disrupted its publication. For example, in June 2022, system issues stemming from a power failure forced the EIA to delay the release of the WPSR by several weeks.