Context:

Instituto Butantã has been working on a dengue vaccine since the late 1990s. This vaccine is unique as it is a single-dose immunization that offers protection against all four serotypes of the dengue virus. The vaccine showed promising results in clinical trials, with an efficacy rate of 79.6% across various age groups and serotype-specific efficacy rates of 89.5% for DENV-1 and 69.6% for DENV-2.

The first two years of clinical trial data will be submitted to the National Health Surveillance Agency (Anvisa) in the second half of 2024. Following the submission, there will be further discussions with Anvisa regarding the internal processes and production capacity of Instituto Butantã. The approval process includes a thorough review of results, necessary adjustments, and improvement of production processes.

Resolution Criteria:

This market will resolve based on the official announcement of Anvisa's approval date for Instituto Butantã's dengue vaccine. The approval date must be confirmed through a reliable source, such as an official press release from Anvisa or Instituto Butantã, or a reputable news outlet.

The market will resolve to the option that corresponds to the quarter in which the approval is officially announced. If no announcement is made by the end of 2025, I'll resolve to "2026 or later", unless Instituto Butantã officially shuts down the development of the vaccine, in which case I will resolve it as N/A.