
Will development of a universal flu vaccine have made significant progress by 2026?
33
Ṁ1kṀ2.1kDec 31
14%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves YES if a "universal flu vaccine" has entered phase III trials by the beginning of 2026. See, eg, recent news.
I'm using "universal flu vaccine" colloquially for the purposes of this question--it wouldn't need to target every possible flu strain but might, for example, target certain elements of a virus common to the majority of flu viruses that infect humans.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get
1,000 to start trading!
Sort by:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cx2g8rz7yedo getting some coverage 20 Feb 2026 so too late and not entered human trials.
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-025-03608-1 is behind a paywall but might be useful as collecting together different techniques being attempted.
Not seen anything suggesting phase III trials started.
@GavrielK Still around to resolve this?
People are also trading
Related questions
Will Moderna's mRNA flu shot be available in the US in 2026?
14% chance
Will a vaccine for HIV be approved by the FDA by 2030?
72% chance
Will a new tuberculosis vaccine be available by the end of 2032?
72% chance
Universal Coronavirus Vaccine released in the US by 2030?
8% chance
Will the CDC recommend the flu vaccine for the majority of Americans for the 2035 flu season?
87% chance
Will the CDC recommend the flu vaccine for the majority of Americans for the 2050 flu season?
48% chance
Will a vaccine for HIV be a available in the US or Europe by 2030?
47% chance
Will a dengue vaccine based on TV003/TV005 be approved before 2050?
62% chance
Will a vaccine for HIV be approved by the FDA and be available for public use by 2027?
28% chance
Will a third dengue vaccine be approved before 2050?
90% chance