Will the R21 malaria vaccine be distributed in 15 countries before July 1st, 2025?
Mini
6
51
2026
46%
chance
  1. Resolves upon data from the WHO, UNICEF, Gavi, country-specific ministry of health, or a respected international news outlet that confirms rollout in 15 or more countries occurred before July 1st, 2025. Resolves negatively if data from the above sources confirms delivery in fewer than 15 sources, or if no confirmation is made in either direction by January 1st, 2026.

  2. 1Day Sooner has an R21 Status Report available here that may be useful.

  3. More malaria-related questions can be found on our Manifold account here.


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