🏅 Top traders

@1941159478 here is the final ranking

@MayMeta Juicily I see a slightly different result:

Since it’s the same five people though I’ll resolve before anything weird happens. Maybe people still can unlist markets or something?

@1941159478 Yeah, the league standings have still been moving around (a bug) - despite having been over. Hopefully there is a snapshot the devs took, but otherwise, I can confirm @MayMeta 's screenshot as the one when the league closed

@firstuserhere In fact, the league leaderboards are still jumping, but yeah, the promotion went to @MayMeta

@firstuserhere I took a json snapshot also, JIC

@firstuserhere Not very 'finalized' then :) But since it's top 5 there's no ambiguity here anyway

@1941159478 I think there's also some ongoing work to check for markets that were manipulated in breach of rules that will be delisted, but I'm not sure.

@MayMeta number one, unbeatable

Honestly, this market should've remained open for longer

@MayMeta silliness was indeed avoided imo

@deagol fair, seeing how firstuserhere turned himself into a Bot for a week, and then back again, I now understand what Johny meant by 'silliness' 😂 https://manifold.markets/SimonGrayson/who-will-be-promoted-to-diamond-fro

Who will be promoted to Diamond from the Intuitive Faeries league?

Intuitive Faeries is looking like one of the toughest and most competitive platinum leagues: https://manifold.markets/leagues/1/platinum/Intuitive-Faeries There are lots of big names in the group, including 2nd place and 7th place on the all time traders leaderboard (1st and 5th if you don’t inclu…

@MayMeta also the dramatic changes from re-listing a certain unlisted market

@MayMeta I'm glad the market closed early, good for DPM.

Oh, I didn't see this market until a couple of minutes before it closed. Hi everyone. :) Now that we know my probability of promoting is 0.4% feel free to bet down my market (created before I threw away >700 mana on a gambling market... Not that my chances were good exactly before that...)

@Fion if it shows 0.4% here it means the market thinks your probability is 2% because this pays evenly to the top 5 so 20% each. And hey, I got a couple mana on you!

@deagol ah yes, good point. Not as big a price difference as I thought.

Haha, thanks for the support! Anything can happen! :)

@Fion Your profit growth looks exceptionally steady. If not fo that dumb /ChristopherRandles/will-this-market-close-with-chance!...

@MayMeta thanks. Yeah, I think I play quite cautiously, normally not betting things quite as far as my true probability estimate, and I do quite a bit of low level market making, both of which contribute to slow and steady gains.

On that market you linked I was initially following a strategy that mathematically guaranteed profits (buying NO only when the probability went above 25% and then selling it at 25%) but in literally the last few seconds I thought "fuck it" and dropped my whole balance.

Going to try to stick to actual predictions from now on. I'm glad Manifold are being aggressive with the delisting. :)

update as this market closes. Great job all! And best of luck to all BBs in the last stretch!

Hi 😏

I just found this market. Shouldn't I have gotten a notification when I was tagged in one of the answers? Anyway, go BB!

@AlexbGoode I'm think people are only notified If they are mentioned in a comment.

Come on BBs, still the best but others catching up on us!

@deagol We do have another thing going for us. The thousands places of the top 5 are 6, 5, 4, 3, 2. :)

@TobyBW ha. but seriously, these things usually follow power laws but for whatever reason we’re linear :)