@Fion I wouldn't have tried your approach anyway though, when the closing range is 20-25% I'm basically competing against you to quintuple (or more) my mana, whereas you're fighting to get like 20% returns.

predicted NO

@DanMan314 that would have been fine if I'd placed my bet in the last second because nobody would have been able to bet after me.

I actually thought I'd missed my chance. I thought the market was going to close before I hit the button. My clock was wrong.

sold Ṁ3 of NO

I would have thought Yes holders have incentive to cash in some of their profits and push % chance down into the payout range. Slightly surprised this hasn't happened in last 2 days.

No holders may want to push below 20% for larger profits but that increases rewards for yes holders to push into 20-25% range. The alternative is to try to keep at 26% or above but that could turn them into yes holders who would prefer to allow % chance to fall into 20-25% range.

New traders probably not interested at 26% or above because pushing below 20% makes it too enticing for traders to push into pay zone.

The trades below 20% have made it interesting. Does look like the no holders are in a good position to me but maybe it will work out differently than I expect.

predicted NO

@ChristopherRandles the YES side currently has three pretty big hitters on it. The NO side only has one. If we push it below 20% we'll end up in a fight where the YES side has it easier, more profitable, and they've got more mana to spend.

The only way it goes below 20% is either if somebody makes a mistake, or a big whale comes in and decides to start an uphill fight.

predicted NO

@Fion and of course the 25% mark is much "safer" than the 20% one because both sides can exit gracefully, by selling for a small profit. (Apart from whoever first bid it above 25% who I think made a poor decision. They will lose mana unless somebody else makes a bigger error.)

At 20% however, anybody who wants out is likely to have to do so at a loss. The only winning strategy is to keep spending...

@Fion Hasn't Xavier Baton got a cost at around 17 so exiting at 20-25 would be a loss. Has to push down to 19 or keep 26 or over to make a profit?

bought Ṁ20 of NO

@ChristopherRandles true, but I still don't think they'll win a spending contest with Nikita, Trong and Heliscone

I always make the mistake with markets like this of assuming everybody else will follow close to optimal play, which is rarely true. And if somebody deviates wildly from optimal play, there are then lots of interesting opportunities to exploit that.

bought Ṁ0 of YES

@Fion Nikita, Trong and Heliscone have yes positions of just 201. Once they are sold they no longer have incentive to push into yes from 26 that would lose them money. I have an order to buy at 26% for 66 that is not enough but if others join me maybe we can get it over 201?

I am surprised other no positions holders are not putting in orders to buy at 26.

Or maybe you think the big hitters will change to no positions and keep below 20%?

predicted NO

@ChristopherRandles If I understand your point about YES bettors, the same is true of NO bettors. Yes, I could put a limit order at 26 to try and make sure it resolves NO, but the more people bought into my order the less NO I would have, so the less I would make if the market resolves NO. Selfishly, it's better for me if somebody else (e.g. you) holds that NO order at 26 so I don't have to.

As you say, your NO order isn't enough on its own, so if the YES bettors sell, they'll go right through your NO and then we'll be in YES territory again. If that happens and I don't notice, I lose. But if that happens and I do notice, I can sell my NO for a slightly higher price than I would if I put an order at 26.

predicted NO

@Fion Yes it may happen before last few seconds and you notice and get better price. However if it happens in last few seconds and you don't have time to react? Perhaps you prefer to put in your sell order in last few seconds rather than now for this reason.

I guess it could make sense for me to do the same but worry I would be distracted by something and forget. Or maybe my buy order should be at 19% or something until a couple of minutes before closing.