Will there be a bank run on Manifold before 2028?

Question

A "bank run" meaning that many users become concerned they won't be able to withdraw their mana and rush to do so before other people do. It is not necessary that Manifold actually runs out of USD to fulfill charity donations.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 15% chance (36 traders, as of Sep 28, 2026).