Will Guinea worm disease be eradicated before 2031?
Will Guinea worm disease be eradicated before 2031?
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Note that to be declared eradicated, there must be zero reported cases for 3 years. From https://www.who.int/activities/certifying-eradication-of-dracunculiasis:
To be declared free of dracunculiasis, a country that has stopped transmission of the disease must have reported zero indigenous cases through active surveillance for at least 3 consecutive calendar years.
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We can pray it will. Hope this horrible thing gets extincted ASAP. (Looks like it might've started jumping to dogs, though.)
@Slackhammer It's been in dogs for a while. The relatively new thing is actually tracking that, because we didn't realize that dogs/cats/monkeys could be a reservoir that might infect humans.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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