Will a wild animal be infected with the New World screwworm in the US, before 2027?
Will a wild animal be infected with the New World screwworm in the US, before 2027?
14
1kṀ646
2026
55%
chance

Resolution criteria:

A "YES" outcome requires that a credible source (e.g. a government agency such as the USDA-APHIS) confirms that a free-ranging wild animal in the contiguous United States has been infected by the New World screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax), before January 1st 2027 at 00:00 GMT. Infections in humans do not count. Similarly, infections in pets, livestock, or otherwise captive or confined animals do not count. However, infections in feral animals (such as feral cats) will count. An example of what would qualify as a "YES" if it happened again, is the outbreak among deer in the Florida Keys in 2016.

I will not bet on this question.

Useful background:

- According to APHIS, the New World screwworm has been spreading northward from the current barrier zone along the Darién Gap in Panama.

- Climate change seems to be contributing to an expansion of habitat suitability northward in the Americas.

- See here for a summary of recent developments and attempts to combat the spread of the parasite.

See also this related question:

Science
Public Health
Effective Altruism
Wild Animal Welfare
Animal welfare
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