Will the World Health Organization (WHO) officially declare Dracunculiasis (Guinea worm disease) as eradicated by 2030?

Question

Background: Dracunculiasis, commonly known as Guinea worm disease, is a parasitic infection that occurs in certain remote parts of Africa. It is transmitted when people consume water contaminated with Guinea worm larvae. The WHO has been actively working to eradicate this disease for several decades, and significant progress has been made, with a dramatic reduction in cases. 
Dracunculiasis is especially hard to exterminate because the disease can be carried by stray or wild animals.

This prediction market question invites participants to speculate on whether the WHO will be able to officially declare the disease as eradicated by the end of the year 2030.

Resolve Conditions:

Positive Resolution: The prediction will resolve positively (Yes) if, by December 31, 2030, the World Health Organization officially declares that Dracunculiasis has been eradicated. An official declaration would typically involve a public statement or press release by the WHO, confirming that there have been no reported cases of Guinea worm disease for a sustained period, as per the criteria set by the organization for disease eradication.
The market can close early as soon as an official declaration is made.

Negative Resolution: The prediction will resolve negatively (No) if, by December 31, 2030, the WHO has not made any official declaration regarding the eradication of Dracunculiasis. This includes scenarios where the disease is still being reported in any region, if the WHO states that the disease is not yet eradicated, or if there is simply no official statement made on the matter by the end of the specified date.

Additional Information: In case of any ambiguity, such as conflicting reports or unclear statements from the WHO, the resolution will be based on the most official and direct communication from the WHO regarding the status of Dracunculiasis eradication.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 53% chance (6 traders, as of Aug 27, 2025).