Who will be the next Labour prime minister of New Zealand?
15
173
1.2K
2050
22%
Kieran McAnulty
19%
Other
8%
Chris Hipkins
7%
David Parker
7%
Carmel Sepuloni
7%
Megan Woods
6%
Cushla Tangaere-Manuel
5%
Peeni Henare
5%
Barbara Edmonds
4%
Arena Williams
3%
Willie Jackson
2%
Adrian Rurawhe
1.7%
Ayesha Verrall
1.4%
Ginny Anderson
1.1%
Grant Robertson

Resolves to the next Labour prime minister of New Zealand, whoever that will be. "Other" will never resolve positively.

I'm not sure how the "Other" category works. If you think that none of the listed people will resolve positively, your best bet is probably to bet against them rather than bet in favour of "Other".

Get Ṁ200 play money
Sort by:
bought Ṁ25 of Chris Hipkins YES

I think there is a legitimate case that Chris Hipkins will become the 'next' prime minister today.

I'm not going to push hard for this, just leave it up to the interpretation for the creator, but it is there as an issue.

@JoshuaWilkes Is that in the spirit of the question though. I dont think that’s what intended when the question was asked

@JackP I guess no-one imagined that this would happen though.

Personally, the issue is more whether Hipkins is 'still' prime minister or whether he is becoming the next prime minister

sold Ṁ65 of Adrian Rurawhe NO

@JoshuaWilkes Yes, I think he’s still prime minister. Nothing has changed and the question is next.

sold Ṁ23 of Chris Hipkins YES

@JackP So if nothing has changed, why is he being sworn in as Prime Minister?

@JoshuaWilkes So he is continuing prime minister. Not next

bought Ṁ22 of Chris Hipkins YES

@JackP let's see what @B says

@JoshuaWilkes I'm going to make a call that today's event does not resolve the market. This is a really interesting case you are making. Constitutionally speaking, de jure, you are correct. He is being appointed to a new term. But as we're all aware, Hipkins's new term is limited deliberately in time to, likely a few weeks, and also limited by the caretaker convention. If for some reason negotiations dragged out so long it was decided that the current government under Chris Hipkins needs to abandon the caretaker convention and actually govern the country, I will resolve this in favour of Chris Hipkins. Otherwise we'll keep it more aligned with the intention of the question.

@B perfectly reasonable call