Cancer has been the second leading cause of death in the US in recent years [1]. This market will resolve as YES early if any statistics from a government agency indicate that. If no such stats are published, this market will resolve as NO on December 31st, 2035.
This market is designed to gauge how people’s opinions about cancer treatment evolve using fair criteria. However, other factors, such as changes in population structure, may also strongly influence the results.
Reference: 2021 statistics [2]
1st: Heart Disease
2nd: Cancer
3rd: COVID-19
4th: Accidents
5th: Stroke
I set the threshold to be the 4th position to avoid the impact of unexpected events, as seen in COVID-19.
[2] https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/leading-causes-of-death.htm
1,000
3.00Most of "accidental deaths" are either drug overdoses (reported confusingly as "unintentional posioning") or car crashes.
Drug overdoses were increasing basically exponentially up through 2021:
Although they have leveled off in the past year:
Meanwhile, car crash deaths per year are steadier, and have been overall decreasing as cars become safer. I'd expect this trend to continue thanks to self-driving-car safety features like automatic braking.
Still, I could imagine "accidents" crowding out cancer if some deadly new drug hits the USA around 2035, even if we don't make much progress on cancer.