Will cancer be less deadly than dementia in 2030?
8
28
260
2031
21%
chance

Resolves “yes” if, according to the WHO (or some suitable successor if the WHO does not exist in 2030), more people die globally of dementia than cancer in 2030. Resolves “no” otherwise.

Resolves “n/a” if both diseases are fully eradicated or cause no deaths globally in 2030, or if reliable statistics do not exist.

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not clear, it can be argued that death accounted to dementia is much attributable to the senescence / age itself