Will heart disease no longer be the leading cause of death in the US in any year prior to 2031?
20
115
450
2033
25%
chance

The leading cause of death in the U.S. has been heart disease for many years, but the number of deaths from heart disease been declining faster relative to cancer. There is also the possibility of another, more deadly pandemic in the near future, and one also has to consider other possibilities such as a war with other nations.

To be clear, I am including a mortality report for the year 2030 (this question includes the year 2030), and am considering the entire US population. Also, this question is about "the" leading cause of death, not "a" leading cause of death, so the question will only resolve YES if heart disease is no longer the top cause of death in the US for any of the years from 2022 up to and including 2030. It will resolve NO only if all mortality reports from 2022-2030 are released before the closing date and each has heart disease as the leading cause of death. If for some reason a mortality report is missing or is unavailable by the closing date, and no other authoritative, US governmental source is available to decide these criteria, the market will resolve N/A.

I have put the closing date (with plenty of cushion) far away as 2033, because mortality reports apparently take a long time and there might be another more serious pandemic or some other event pushing back the report even later (the 2021 mortality report didn't get published until end of 2022: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/databriefs/db456.htm. If a report is released by the CDC that meets the criteria for YES, I will resolve it immediately.

As I mentioned before: I will try to only reference CDC statistics for resolution, provided they are available. If the CDC is reorganized into another organization or is disbanded, I'll reference what I believe to be the next best US governmental, authoritative reference. Here is the current link for CDC statistics:

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/leading-causes-of-death.htm

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If you vote YES, it might also be helpful to others if you indicate what you think would likely replace heart-disease as the leading cause of death.

@parhizj Information sourcing! I love it.

You should make a related multi-choice market on the question

@parhizj

Well as we all know from other markets, there's a 20% chance it will be AI 😅

@Joshua Remember if you vote no it means no AI FOOM also in this time frame

I'm surprised at the 20 pct number. I hope the question was clear.

@parhizj

Well if CDC statistics are unavailable it resolves N/A so actually we can discount any cause of death we expect to kill us all in one year or less

@Joshua Ah right of course.

@Joshua I won't be able to resolve it anyway in that scenario 🙂