Will Cancer Be Ranked 4th or Lower Among the Leading Causes of Death in the US by 2035?

Question

Cancer has been the second leading cause of death in the US in recent years [1]. This market will resolve as YES early if any statistics from a government agency indicate that. If no such stats are published, this market will resolve as NO on December 31st, 2035.

This market is designed to gauge how people’s opinions about cancer treatment evolve using fair criteria. However, other factors, such as changes in population structure, may also strongly influence the results.

Reference: 2021 statistics [2]

1st: Heart Disease

2nd: Cancer

3rd: COVID-19

4th: Accidents

5th: Stroke

I set the threshold to be the 4th position to avoid the impact of unexpected events, as seen in COVID-19.

[1] https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/covid-is-on-track-to-become-the-u-s-s-leading-cause-of-death-yet-again1/

[2] https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/leading-causes-of-death.htm

Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 23% chance (13 traders, as of May 18, 2026).