Will cancer be cured by 2035?

This market resolves YES if by the end of 2034, humanity has the technology to prevent death or any serious permanent damage from all types of cancer. Cost is irrelevant; even if only billionares can access the cure, this will still resolve YES.

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predicts NO

This should be like 15% max

I think there will be a lot of debate around this if we come even close to a YES

predicts NO

@JanLukasR it might even be impossible to resolve because there are basically infinite types of cancer

predicts NO

@JanLukasR I agree, there are many vague terms in the text of this question. Another example, even if we could "cure" every cancer, there are some cancers that are really aggressive and cause organ damage faster than we can start treatment (or even before diagnosis), even when we have really effective treatment available. So arguably this would cause it to resolve NO since we're not able to prevent all serious damage from cancer. "Cancer" itself is also not very precisely defined.

Aside from definitional challenges, I think question resolving YES is wholly dependent on AI advances. It's not really conceivable that the current global cancer research program would make even modest progress toward "curing all cancer" in the next 10 years. If that was a possibility, a lot of pharma money is being wasted right now on developing drugs which really can't cure cancer, only delay the time to death modestly.

You wrote 2024 in your description. I guess you meant 2034?

predicts YES

@NickelChen Whoops, yeah, 2034. Fixed that, thank you.

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