Will Erdogan get the most votes in the first round of the 2023 Turkish presidential election?
Will Erdogan get the most votes in the first round of the 2023 Turkish presidential election?
28
570Ṁ24k
resolved May 15
Resolved
YES

Background: On May 14th, 2023, the first round of the Turkish presidential election will be held. A second round will be held if no candidate reaches 50% of the votes.

Will Erdogan get a plurality of the votes in the first presidential election, as determined by the Supreme Election Council?

This could mean outright winning in the first round, or getting less than 50% of the vote but still more than any other candidate.

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Elections: World
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Turkey
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2y

@MichaelWheatley botlab with more profit here than the next 4 human traders

I believe this market can resolve YES based on the official count https://secim.aa.com.tr/
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has 49.35% of the votes
Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu has 44.98% of the votes
Even if 100% of the remaining 2.33% of uncounted ballots go to Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu - the proportion between those two would still be 48.2% : 47:3%

Therefore, at this point it's guaranteed that Erdoğan has strictly more votes than Kılıçdaroğlu. Although it's not yet guaranteed that he has <50%.

predictedYES 2y

@xyz could you close and resolve this please?

predictedYES 2y

More about votes

Is this question worded badly or do people think Kilicdaroglu is going to win? I can't tell but I'm changing the wording anyway.

2y

@xyz I misread the question. Had I read your original explanation I should have realised.

2y

I should have read the question more clearly, I mistook it for an arbitrage opportunity on whether there is a second round. It looks to resolve no on this question another candidate would have to get more votes than Erdogan in this round, which I don't think is very likely

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