Will Erdogan get the most votes in the first round of the 2023 Turkish presidential election?

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resolved May 15

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Background: On May 14th, 2023, the first round of the Turkish presidential election will be held. A second round will be held if no candidate reaches 50% of the votes.

Will Erdogan get a plurality of the votes in the first presidential election, as determined by the Supreme Election Council?

This could mean outright winning in the first round, or getting less than 50% of the vote but still more than any other candidate.

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@MichaelWheatley botlab with more profit here than the next 4 human traders

I believe this market can resolve YES based on the official count https://secim.aa.com.tr/
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has 49.35% of the votes
Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu has 44.98% of the votes
Even if 100% of the remaining 2.33% of uncounted ballots go to Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu - the proportion between those two would still be 48.2% : 47:3%

Therefore, at this point it's guaranteed that Erdoğan has strictly more votes than Kılıçdaroğlu. Although it's not yet guaranteed that he has <50%.

predictedYES

@xyz could you close and resolve this please?

predictedYES

More about votes

Is this question worded badly or do people think Kilicdaroglu is going to win? I can't tell but I'm changing the wording anyway.

@xyz I misread the question. Had I read your original explanation I should have realised.

I should have read the question more clearly, I mistook it for an arbitrage opportunity on whether there is a second round. It looks to resolve no on this question another candidate would have to get more votes than Erdogan in this round, which I don't think is very likely

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