Will Turkish opposition's first round results differ significantly from the state's?

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resolved Jul 16

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The Turkish opposition coalition currently has its own count of the ballots. The AKP (Erdogan) is relying on the state run news agency Anadolu for live ballot counts. Will Anadolu and the opposition's final vote counts differ by more than 10,000 for a single candidate?

For clarity's sake, the count that actually determines the election is the Supreme Election Council's, but it will take a while to be aggregated.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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predictedYES

Plans for this market? I can't find the CHP claiming a specific vote count.

@DanMan314 I think it makes sense for it to resolves NO, but I could see an argument for N/A

predictedYES

@xyz I’m tempted to argue for N/A and I think there is a case, but odds are it should be NO. Idk if you’re feeling pedantic you could resolve to some PROB that reflects your best thoughts. I’m fine with whatever.

What source are you relying on for the opposition count?

@DanMan314 News, for the most part. It says here that they're contesting 2k ballot boxes, though I don't know how many votes are per ballot box. After that's resolved we'll probably hear how many votes they think are fake.

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