Will Turkey be a democracy by end of 2025? | Manifold

Will Turkey be a democracy by end of 2025?

18

1kṀ1518

2026

9%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Resolves according to the Economist Intelligence Unit's Democracy Index. If the report stops being published, I reserve the right to use an alternative democracy index. Since the 2022 report was published on February 1, 2023, I will consider reports published up to 2 months into 2026.

"Flawed democracy" counts.

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Year 1 (of 3) complete: Turkey's score has dropped from 4.35 to 4.33. Two years remain until the conclusion of this market.

currently at 4.35; down from 5.76 in 2012. Needs a 6.00 to resolve YES.

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