Will the territorial unity of the Russian Federation fragment into two or more sovereign nations before 2026?
Plus
27
Ṁ12422026
17%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This prediction market question probes the potential fragmentation of the territorial unity of the current Russian Federation. The metric for validation is the recognition of two or more sovereign nations from this territory by the United Nations by the end of 2025.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00
Related questions
Related questions
Will the Russian Federation break up into multiple independent states before 2030
26% chance
Will Russia be broken up by the end of 2024?
2% chance
Will any part of pre-2014 Russia territory become an internationally recognized independent state by the end of 2040?
49% chance
Will a territory with over 1 million people cease to be part of Russia by 2025?
3% chance
Will Russia take more territory than what Ukraine will regain between beginning and EOY 2024
76% chance
Will any of the 21 republics of Russia secede from the Russian Federation before 2030
18% chance
Will there be a civil war in Russia at any point before EOY 2050?
60% chance
Will a territory with over 10 million people cease to be part of Russia by 2025?
2% chance
Will Ukraine and Russia have a cease-fire or peace before 2026?
58% chance
By the end of 2024, will Ukraine still hold any of the Russian territory it currently holds?
97% chance