Will the territorial unity of the Russian Federation fragment into two or more sovereign nations before 2026? | Manifold

Will the territorial unity of the Russian Federation fragment into two or more sovereign nations before 2026?

40

Ṁ1kṀ10k

Jan 1

1.5%

chance

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This prediction market question probes the potential fragmentation of the territorial unity of the current Russian Federation. The metric for validation is the recognition of two or more sovereign nations from this territory by the United Nations by the end of 2025.

Ukraine-Russia war

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@xenochain Hi do you mind resolving this market?

1250 Mana on Yes: https://manifold.markets/fast/will-any-of-the-89-russian-regions

this would also imply that one:

https://manifold.markets/sulliwan/will-bashkortostan-secede-from-the

Will Bashkortostan secede from the Russian Federation before the end of 2028?

23% chance. Also resolves as yes if Russian Federation ceases to exist.

@gigab0nus Indeed

People are also trading

Will Russia control at least 85% of the four annexed oblasts at the end of October 2026?

Will the Russian Federation break up into multiple independent states before 2030

Will Russia make territorial gains in Ukraine in 2026?

Will Kaliningrad achieve independence from Russia by the end of 2026?

Will any part of pre-2014 Russia territory become an internationally recognized independent state by the end of 2040?

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Will the majority of Russians cease to support "the actions of the Russian armed forces in Ukraine" in 2026?

Which regions will Russia claim sovereignty over as of 1 July 2027?

Will any of the 21 republics of Russia secede from the Russian Federation before 2030

Which Russian regions will hold referendums and declare independence from the Russian Federation by 2040?

Related questions

Will Russia control at least 85% of the four annexed oblasts at the end of October 2026?

Will the Russian Federation break up into multiple independent states before 2030

Will Russia make territorial gains in Ukraine in 2026?

Will Kaliningrad achieve independence from Russia by the end of 2026?

Will any part of pre-2014 Russia territory become an internationally recognized independent state by the end of 2040?

End of Russian-Ukraine conflict in 2026?

Will the majority of Russians cease to support "the actions of the Russian armed forces in Ukraine" in 2026?

Which regions will Russia claim sovereignty over as of 1 July 2027?

Will any of the 21 republics of Russia secede from the Russian Federation before 2030

Which Russian regions will hold referendums and declare independence from the Russian Federation by 2040?