Will the territorial unity of the Russian Federation fragment into two or more sovereign nations before 2026? | Manifold

Will the territorial unity of the Russian Federation fragment into two or more sovereign nations before 2026?

40

1kṀ10k

Jan 1

1.5%

chance

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

This prediction market question probes the potential fragmentation of the territorial unity of the current Russian Federation. The metric for validation is the recognition of two or more sovereign nations from this territory by the United Nations by the end of 2025.

Market context

Ukraine-Russia war

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@xenochain Hi do you mind resolving this market?

1250 Mana on Yes: https://manifold.markets/fast/will-any-of-the-89-russian-regions

this would also imply that one:

https://manifold.markets/sulliwan/will-bashkortostan-secede-from-the

Will Bashkortostan secede from the Russian Federation before the end of 2028?

23% chance. Also resolves as yes if Russian Federation ceases to exist.

@gigab0nus Indeed

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Related questions

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