Resolves YES if they win at least 201/400 seats, NO if they win 200 or fewer. Resolves N/A if there is no general election in 2024.
(This will resolve early soon after the election is held. The 2019 election was held in May.)
The African National Congress has won a majority in every general election since South Africa became a democracy, but the country is now experiencing constant rolling blackouts with no end in sight. This might cause enough of a shift for them to lose their majority.
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The IEC has announced the ANC won 159 seats https://www.youtube.com/live/UtMU7MHOa8U?si=YJmrP6JKisv7Ji4P
Closing and will resolve based on https://results.elections.org.za/dashboards/npe/ once it reports final results.
(Cross-posting my analysis on a similar topic: https://manifold.markets/cash/will-the-anc-receive-less-than-50-o#eSe9OM2SCQkcJCG5D7DF)