Resolution criteria

This market is configured as a binary market. Unless a specific individual is named by the creator in the market title or options, this market will resolve YES if the specified individual is officially sworn in as the next President of the Republic of South Africa following Cyril Ramaphosa, and NO otherwise.

• Note for creator: Because this market is set up as BINARY, the question title must evaluate a specific candidate (e.g., "Will Paul Mashatile be the next president of SA?") or a specific condition. Please edit the criteria to name the designated person if applicable.

• The outcome will resolve according to official records published by the Parliament of South Africa (parliament.gov.za) or The Presidency (thepresidency.gov.za).

• An acting president serving in a temporary capacity under Section 90 of the South African Constitution does not count unless they are formally elected as President by the National Assembly and inaugurated into the office.

• The market resolves when the first non-incumbent individual is officially inaugurated as President of South Africa.

Background

The President of the Republic of South Africa is not elected by direct popular vote; instead, members of the National Assembly elect the President during the first sitting of the assembly following a general election, or when a vacancy arises.

Cyril Ramaphosa was sworn in for a second full term as President on June 19, 2024, following the 2024 general election and the formation of a Government of National Unity (GNU). Under Section 88(2) of the South African Constitution, a person may not hold office as President for more than two five-year terms. As Ramaphosa is serving his second full term, the position will transition to a successor no later than after the next scheduled general election (due by 2029) or earlier if he resigns or leaves office prematurely.

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