Will South Africa have another presidential election before 2029?
6
1kṀ528
2029
32%
chance

South Africa had a presidential election on 29 May 2024. No party won a majority so the country must be governed by a coalition. The next scheduled election is in 2029, but there are a couple of ways one could happen earlier.

  • If no coalition forms in time, there will be another election in 2024.

  • If the coalition government dissolves later, there might be an early election.

South Africa does have "municipal" elections, the next of which is in 2026. These won't count. I will only count elections where

  • the presidency is at stake

  • there is a public vote (so for example the parliament choosing a new president without a full election first doesn't count)

I will not trade in this market.

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