Will South Africa have another presidential election before 2029?

Question

South Africa had a presidential election on 29 May 2024. No party won a majority so the country must be governed by a coalition. The next scheduled election is in 2029, but there are a couple of ways one could happen earlier.

If no coalition forms in time, there will be another election in 2024.

If the coalition government dissolves later, there might be an early election.

South Africa does have "municipal" elections, the next of which is in 2026. These won't count. I will only count elections where

the presidency is at stake

there is a public vote (so for example the parliament choosing a new president without a full election first doesn't count)

I will not trade in this market.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 27% chance (10 traders, as of May 2, 2026).