South Africa is holding a general election in 2024. The African National Congress (ANC) has won a majority of the vote in every election since 1994. However, since 2020, some opinion polls have the ANC receiving less than 50% support.

Will the ANC receive less than 50% of the vote in South Africa's 2024 election?

For easy reference, here are the shares of the vote for the ANC from Wikipedia:

• 1994: 62.65%

• 1999: 66.35%

• 2004: 69.69%

• 2009: 65.90%

• 2014: 62.15%

• 2019: 57.50%