I created a more detailed market

The Wikipedia polling summary in the question description in general puts the ANC at less than 50% (depending on voter turnout).

To build confidence, I looked at two other pieces of data: membership numbers & party finances.

Membership

As of the elective conference in 2022, ANC membership has declined precipitously (https://mg.co.za/politics/2022-12-18-existential-crisis-anc-membership-drops-by-more-than-one-third-in-five-years/). The peak was in 2012 & attributed largely to Jacob Zuma (https://mg.co.za/article/2012-12-17-anc-membership-numbers-soar/). However, membership doesn’t seem very correlated to election outcomes (see below).

And a 50% general election result doesn’t seem out of place. But it’s worth noting that 2007 membership had differences – it was before party membership reforms. Gatekeeping was noted as a particular problem reducing the membership count. It is likely ANC membership has not been this low in 20 years.

Funding

My Vote Counts (https://myvotecounts.org.za/whose-vote-counts/) is an excellent resource summarising [declared] party funding & donations. As of writing, the DA currently leads in the ANC in total funding (declared since 2021). More importantly, the total quantum of ANC funding is far below what it reportedly requires (https://www.news24.com/citypress/news/anc-is-broke-despite-r19-billion-worth-of-donations-and-fundraising-20231203).

While (technical) insolvency doesn’t necessarily mean the party cannot produce election results, it would certainly be a greater campaigning constraint than previous years.

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Those two factors make 50% with steep downside seem more likely than any sort of surprise upside due to voter turnout.

@lordparsley Jeez I didn’t know the da had more funding the anc , TIL

@wylderai someone else been watching Wendover? 😉

@JoshuaWilkes yup the big new piece of info I missed was the ANC already got less than 50% in the last municipal elections

Related market

Will the EFF get 10% of the votes in the 2024 general election in South Africa?

41% chance. Will the EFF get at least 10% of the vote? Resolves when official results announced by Electoral Commission of South Africa [updated for clarity]

(duplicate post)

I've put up a large limit for NO at 50% if anyone wants to increase their YES position

More or less a dupe of https://manifold.markets/wylderai/will-the-anc-win-a-majority-in-the?r=d3lsZGVyYWk

(But this market is higher quality than mine)

Will the ANC win a majority in the 2024 South African general election?

68% chance. Resolves YES if they win at least 201/400 seats, NO if they win 200 or fewer. Resolves N/A if there is no general election in 2024. (This will resolve early soon after the election is held. The 2019 election was held in May.) The African National Congress has won a majority in every general election since South Africa became a democracy, but the country is now experiencing constant rolling blackouts with no end in sight. This might cause enough of a shift for them to lose their majority.