Will the ANC receive less than 50% of the vote in the 2024 South African general election?
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cshunter
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46%
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South Africa is holding a general election in 2024. The African National Congress (ANC) has won a majority of the vote in every election since 1994. However, since 2020, some opinion polls have the ANC receiving less than 50% support.

Will the ANC receive less than 50% of the vote in South Africa's 2024 election?

For easy reference, here are the shares of the vote for the ANC from Wikipedia:

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Dave_9000ishpredicts YES

Related market

Will the EFF get 10% of the votes in the 2024 general election in South Africa?
41% chance. Will the EFF get at least 10% of the vote? Resolves when official results announced by Electoral Commission of South Africa [updated for clarity]
Dave_9000ish avatar
Dave_9000ishbought Ṁ10 of YES

(duplicate post)

wylderai avatar
wylderaibought Ṁ0 of NO

I've put up a large limit for NO at 50% if anyone wants to increase their YES position

wylderai avatar
wylderaibought Ṁ168 of NO

More or less a dupe of https://manifold.markets/wylderai/will-the-anc-win-a-majority-in-the?r=d3lsZGVyYWk

(But this market is higher quality than mine)

Will the ANC win a majority in the 2024 South African general election?
68% chance. Resolves YES if they win at least 201/400 seats, NO if they win 200 or fewer. Resolves N/A if there is no general election in 2024. (This will resolve early soon after the election is held. The 2019 election was held in May.) The African National Congress has won a majority in every general election since South Africa became a democracy, but the country is now experiencing constant rolling blackouts with no end in sight. This might cause enough of a shift for them to lose their majority.