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Earliest date we will see credible claims that a new space data center is cheaper than its terrestrial counterpart?
11
Ṁ13kṀ8.7k
2051
May 2, 2032
3%
2026
7%
2027
10%
2028-2029
10%
2030-2031
9%
2032-2033
9%
2034-2035
9%
2036-2037
9%
2038-2039
8%
2040-2041
7%
2042-2043
6%
2044-2045
13%
>= 2046

Elon says "in 36 months - probably closer to 30 months - the most economically compelling place to put AI will be space" and it will then get ridiculously better to be in space.

  • Dwarkesh podcast Feb 5, 2026

This suggests his timeline for this market would be late 2028-2029

This market is intentionally being generous in favor of Elon's claim, but if there is a robust analysis that says terrestrial data center is $1 cheaper than space data center that doesn't count towards resolution. (At that point, though, I would expect someone to be able to write a credible analysis that says the space data center is cheaper)

Resolution must accompany a link to said post or take place in 2046.

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I think we need some wealthy Elon stan in here as a counterparty. Is @MolbyDick still around?

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