Will an AI bubble pop cause the next depression?

Question

Resolves YES if overvaluation of AI related stocks is one significant cause of the next severe and prolonged economic downturn.

Resolves NO if there is not any AI "bubble pop" or if it does not impact the greater economy in a significant enough way.

Market will extend until the next depression is clearly established and causes are analyzed by at least 10 reputable publications. Classification of a depression will be evaluated based on a majority of reputable news sources and relevant experts.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AI_bubble

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_depression

Update 2025-11-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Causality determination: The creator will consult publications to determine if the AI bubble pop caused the depression. The market will remain open until the depression is over (likely at least a year) and most experts can agree on definitions and causes. The creator believes there is an extremely small likelihood of co-occurrence without sufficient causality.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 44% chance (35 traders, as of Apr 16, 2026).