Will there be entry-level AI coders by 2026?
128
1.2kṀ16k
2026
67%
chance

"Entry-level coder": an AI can be given natural language descriptions of coding tasks (emails, issues on a tracker, a spec, etc) and go through the full "just out of undergrad" coding loop: branch/fork, make edits, write tests, submit PRs, go back and forth with managers about testing / requirements, etc.

If extra infrastructure to enable the AI (e.g. tooling to let it work with CI) has to be built, that still counts.

Related to these markets:

  • Update 2025-03-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Existing AIs Exclusion:

    • Existing AIs (i.e. current generation models available at the time of resolution) cannot be considered as fully replacing entry-level coders.

    • Only AIs that demonstrate the complete "just out of undergrad" coding loop—beyond what current systems can achieve—meet the criteria.

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