When will a single model first achieve 10@k solve rate = 90% on the CodeContests dataset?

Question

10@k - unlimited samples may be generated, but at most 10 code samples may be submitted per problem.

I will post my own responses and pick whichever one of those turns out to be correct.

CodeContests dataset: https://github.com/deepmind/code_contests

Close date updated to 2050-01-01 11:59 pm

Apr 8, 4:16pm: Options are written as [a, b), so 2024-2025 means occurring after the start of 2024 and before the start of 2025.

Close date updated to 2032-01-01 11:59 pm

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, 2025-2026, followed by 2026-2027 and 2027-2032 are most likely. See the market for live updates (9 traders, as of Dec 2, 2025).