Will it cost less than 100k USD to train and run a language model that outperforms GPT-3 175B on all benchmarks by the end 2024?
54
1.2kṀ6104resolved Apr 5
Resolved
YES1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
The final model does not have to cost 100k. If a model outperforms GPT-3 before 100k has been spent on training the market resolves yes, even if the model continues to be trained after that point.
Clarification: all benchmarks in the original GPT-3 paper.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ154 | |
| 2 | Ṁ139 | |
| 3 | Ṁ128 | |
| 4 | Ṁ71 | |
| 5 | Ṁ43 |
People are also trading
Related questions
Will it cost $30 to train a GPT-3 level model in 2030?
19% chance
Will a language model comparable to GPT-4 be trained, with ~1/10th the amount of energy it took train GPT-4, by 2028?
92% chance
Will there be an AI language model that strongly surpasses ChatGPT and other OpenAI models before the end of 2025?
44% chance
Will a single model running on a single consumer GPU (<1.5k 2020 USD) outperform GPT-3 175B on all benchmarks in the original paper by 2025?
86% chance
Will $10,000 worth of AI hardware be able to train a GPT-3 equivalent model in under 1 hour, by EOY 2027?
16% chance
Will a language model that runs locally on a consumer cellphone beat GPT4 by EOY 2026?
84% chance
By January 2026, will we have a language model with similar performance to GPT-3.5 (i.e. ChatGPT as of Feb-23) that is small enough to run locally on the highest end iPhone available at the time?
93% chance
Will there be an LLM (as good as GPT-4) that was trained with 1/100th the energy consumed to train GPT-4, by 2026?
83% chance
Will a model be trained using at least as much compute as GPT-3 using AMD GPUs before Jan 1 2026?
84% chance
Will a GPT-4 level system be trained for <$1mm by 2028?
89% chance