Will any LLM pass the gears test by 2024?

5

Ṁ100Ṁ157

resolved Sep 23

Resolved

YES

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6H

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ALL

The gears test was "proposed" by Lecun in a tweet:

"Can an LLM figure this out: In front of us are six gears numbered 1 to 6, mounted on axles in a row. Each gear is engaged with the next gear. If gear number 3 is rotated clockwise, in which direction will gears 1 and 6 rotate?"

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predictedYES

Well, what counts as "passing" the test? E.g., here's what davinci gave me today:

@AndrewG Yeah, I was expecting this to resolve as "already possible".

predictedNO

Loathe to bet against timelines, but I think this kind of reasoning is discontinuous with current LLM capabilities.

@citrinitas the lesson is: never bet against short timelines :p

predictedNO

I claim that (blah blah not a REAL result shift the goalposts etc etc)
Better, I probably should have at least tried putting this into GPT3 before betting. "Let's think step by step" is overpowered.

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Will an LLM be able to solve the Self-Referential Aptitude Test before 2027?

Will the highest-scoring LLM on Dec 31, 2026 show <10% improvement over 2025's best average benchmark performance?

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Will there be any major breakthrough in LLM continual learning before 2029?

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Will an LLM be able to solve the Self-Referential Aptitude Test before 2027?

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Will an LLM improve its own ability along some important metric well beyond the best trained LLMs before 2026?

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Will there be any major breakthrough in LLM continual learning before 2029?

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Will a frontier-level diffusion LLM exist by 2028?